Is The “ICEMAN” Going To Be Put On Ice?

UFC 115 marks the return of Chuck “The Iceman” Liddell to the Octagon since April 2009.  Chuck has taken more than a year off to recover from knockouts at the hands of Mauricio “Shogun” Rua at UFC 97 and seven months earlier knocked out by a vicious right hand delivered by Rashad Evans in UFC 88.

Many have speculated that Chuck had not fully recovered from the knockout in UFC 88 and thought that knockout in UFC 97 was due to residual trauma.  Any way you look at, Chuck Liddell had never suffered back to back losses in his entire career.

Looking back on one of the most storied careers in mixed martial arts and in the UFC (21-7-0), it is astounding to note that only one of Chuck’s seven losses has been by submission (Jeremy Horn, arm triangle choke in UFC 19); and Chuck has never won a fight by submission; and he has only had 8 fights go to decision, losing only one, the fight to Keith Jardine.

Chuck has avenged losses to Jeremy Horn and Randy Couture and he has yet to defeat Quinton “Rampage” Jackson in two fights; and has not had rematches against the opponents from his most recent losses to Keith Jardine, Shogun and Rashad.

Chuck has had two substantial winning streaks, one where he won 10 fights in a row and then he went on another winning streak, winning 7 fights in a row.

These statistics are impressive because they show how dominate Chuck has been throughout his career.  The statistics show that Chuck has the ability to control the tempo of the fight and dictate where the fight will occur; and in most cases, the fight will be a stand-up fight.

Over the years, many fighters employed different strategies which they thought would allow them to frustrate Chuck and throw him off and give them an edge.  Those strategies rarely prevailed.

Chuck’s devastating right hand caused opponents to keep distance and ultimately that distance made Chuck’s takedown defense even more effective.  When a fighter tried to come in for a takedown, they were punished; when an opponent tried to close the distance and trade punches with Chuck, they were punished again. And that punishment usually was a big right hand delivered with speed and pinpoint accuracy.

But all of those statistics are history.  In his last 5 fights dating back to when he lost the UFC light-heavyweight belt to Rampage in May 2007 at UFC 71, Chuck is has only 1 win and that was against another aging puncher, Wanderlei Silva.  Chuck has also lost his last 3 fights in a row (Jardine, Rashad & Shogun).

Chuck is now 40 years old, and that is ancient in the fight game, unless your name is Randy Couture (I heard someone say that and I thought it was a good line).  And being 39 or 40 years old, your reflexes start to slow (tell me about it!); just take a look at the replay of the Rashad knockout – Chuck and Rashad had loaded up and were simultaneously throwing big right hands, unfortunately for Chuck, Rashad’s right hand landed first and it was lights out.  While Chuck may disagree, he looked a bit behind when he fought Rashad (Rampage said that Rashad was quicker than he thought).  Against Shogun, same thing – Shogun’s hands seemed to go first.  That can be a sign of age.

What’s going to happen against Rich Franklin – well that’s anyone’s guess.  Rich is 5 years younger than Chuck and that may be a problem, however, I don’t think Rich is as quick as Rashad or Shogun.  Rich is a physical type of fighter and he’ll be right in front of Chuck which will be a benefit for Chuck; and while Rich can fight in the light-heavyweight division, he is a bit undersized for the weight class which is another advantage for Chuck.

But with all that said, Chuck is still 40 years old and the style of fighting that he employs requires speed.  Chuck has tried to regain a measure of youth by changing his lifestyle and working out to get a new body.  While he may look good (he’s never looked better coming into a fight), and in the long run it may be better for him if he keeps up the diet and exercise, it may not be so good in the short term meaning it may affect his endurance in this fight.

The other challenge that faces Chuck is that making a comeback after being out of the fight game for over a year is hard, just ask Rampage.

And finally, the big question will be, if Chuck gets knocked out, will he be able to get back up – ever?  Has being off for more than a year allowed his body to completely heal from the vicious knockouts?

My prediction is that Rich will win by decision – but if Chuck gets knockout again, then he needs to seriously consider hanging up the gloves and calling it a career before he gets seriously hurt.

Nobody wants to see a Hall of Famer being carted around in a wheel chair and drinking his dinner with a straw.  Dana is holding his breath and hoping that his friend will be able to walk out of the Octagon Saturday night.