By The News Leak May 7, 2010
4 Comments
It’s a popular belief that MMA is overtaking boxing as the most popular combat sport in the United States. However, saying that is like saying that NASCAR has overtaken the NFL as the most popular sport. The simple fact is that MMA’s top events don’t out produce boxing’s top events; not even close.
Not even the most casual MMA fan would contend that the NASCAR is more popular than the NFL. Intuitively they know that’s just not true. That conclusion is also supported by a myriad of objective facts. However, the same fan is quick to point out that MMA has surpassed boxing in popularity. Intuitively, the fan believes, because the sport has gained in popularity to him/her, it must have become that popular to the masses. However, the facts just cannot support that myopic conclusion. Clearly, MMA’s has its most popular and consistent results in Nevada. Most of the biggest MMA events are in Nevada. So, Nevada ticket sales should be a reasonable barometer to measure the popularity of MMA versus boxing (even though many of boxing biggest events are held outside of Nevada, particularly in Madison Square Garden).
According to the Nevada State Athletic Commission, the top MMA gate of all time occurred on December 31, 2006, when Chuck Liddell beat Tito Ortiz in front of 12,191 paid spectators at MGM Grand Garden Arena. That event grossed $5,397,300. The next four largest MMA gates were:
UFC 100, July 11, 2009, Brock Lesner/Frank Mir $5,101,740
UFC 79, December 29, 2007 Georges St-Pierre/Matt Hughes $4,994,050
UFC 91, November 15, 2008 Lesner/Randy Couture $4,793,675
UFC 71, May 26, 2007 Quinton Jackson/Liddell $4,304,740
The top two of which were at Mandalay Bay Events Center and the bottom two at MGM. MGM is the larger of the two venues; however, Mandalay Bay has hosted two of the top three grossing events. Most recently, the Rich Franklin/Ortiz fight on November 21, 2009, had an estimated gate of approximately $3 million.
Turning to boxing, the top boxing gate of all time was at MGM on May 5, 2007, between Floyd Mayweather and Oscar de la Hoya. That event grossed a staggering $18,419,200, with 17,078 paid attendance. The next four largest boxing gates were:
November 13, 1999 Lennox Lewis/Evander Holyfield $16,860,300
December 6, 2008 Manny Pacquiao/de la Hoya $14,380,300
June 28, 1997 Mike Tyson/Holyfield (II) $14,277,200
November 8, 1996 Tyson/Holyfield (I) $14,150,700
All of those fights, except the Lewis/Holyfield fight (at Thomas & Mack) were at the larger MGM.
If we were to aggregate the rankings and combine the top boxing and MMA gates of all time, an MMA event would not appear until NUMBER 35; just below the Mike Tyson/Razor Ruddick (I) fight in 1991, and just above de la Hoya/Pernell Whitaker fight in 1997. Moreover, indexing the Liddell/Ortiz gate for over 15 years of inflation would significantly lower that ranking.
Let’s turn to pay-per-view buy rates. The highest PPV buy-rate in boxing history is estimated at 2.15 million buys for de la Hoya/Mayweather (also the largest grossing boxing gate ever). The previous record was 1.99 million buys for Tyson/Holyfield (II). It has been reported that the highest UFC PPV buy rates are: 1.5 million for UFC 100 (although other estimates are below one million); 900,000 for UFC 101; 435,000 for UFC 102; and 375,000 for UFC 103.
In 2009, the top reported MMA gates and PPV buys have been:
Lesner/Mir $5.1 million gate; 900,000 PPV buys
Penn/Florian $3.5 million gate;
St-Pierre/Penn (II) $4.3 million gate; 800,000 PPV buys
In 2009, the top reported boxing gates and PPV buys have been:
Pacquiao/Cotto: $8.84 million gate; 1.25 million PPV buys
Mayweather/Juan Manuel Marquez: $6.8 million gate; 1.05 million PPV buys
Pacquiao/Ricky Hatton: $8.83 million gate; 850,000 PPV buys
In addition to the objective analysis presented herein, consider a subjective analysis of PPV vs. boxing. Look at the names of the athletes we’ve considered. Mike Tyson, Evander Hollyfield, Oscar de la Hoya, Floyd Mayweather and most recently, Manny Pacquiao. Most, if not all of those names, are larger than life. Legends (or soon to be legends) in all of sports. Although Chuck Liddell, Tito Ortiz, Georges St-Pierre, Matt Hughes and Randy Couture are legends in MMA, they are fall far short of the revere held by the athletes in boxing.
One of the problems in this analysis is the reported over-statement of PPV buys by the UFC; however, looking at the gate revenues, its not difficult to logically extrapolate the probable PPV buys if one believes there is a correlation between gate and PPV buys. One can also extrapolate PPV buy rates from payments made by the UFC to fighters who receive a share of PPV revenue. These payments typically report an initial buy rate of between 300,000 and 400,000 buys. Based on insider facts and logical analysis, it’s obvious that the UFC reporters who assume that UFC events regularly draw in excess of one million PPV buys are far exceeding reasonable estimates; no matter how complicated they believe their “regression analysis.” How do we know that boxing doesn’t over-inflate their PPV buy estimates just like the UFC? The answer is simple. How do you think boxers get paid the salaries they receive compared to UFC fighters? As usual, it’s hard to beat good old common sense. In any event, although the advances made by MMA has been laudable, MMA still falls substantially short when it comes to boxing… at least for now.
Although ticket sales and PPV buys may be significantly lower in MMA than in boxing, could it not be argued that total revenue can also be an accurate indicator of popularity? The UFC hosts approx. 18-20 events a year between their PPV events/fight nights/and reality show. How many good boxing events are hosted per year that reach million dollar revenue levels?
For The first part of your analysis: you are taking into account fights from retired boxers from more than 10 years ago, and this is a recent phenomenon. We’re are talking about TODAY, or at least the last 5 years.
For the second part of your analysis: Yes, there are still some boxing events that are doing really well in attendance and PPV, and % 99 of them feature either Pacquiao or Mayweather, who were already boxing stars before MMA got so popular.
But the truth is that apart from these couple of big events, boxing is not doing very well. There are no new boxers who became popular in the recent years. There are complete Weight classes full of mediocre boxers, like the Heavyweight class for example. There are boxers going to MMA, but not the other way around.
I think there will still be boxing in the future, but after today big names like Pacquiao retire there will be no more big events.
MMA is getting more popular every day, with a lot of big events being held every year, and many new fighters coming out and selling tickets.
Boxing is not in its best moment, and I think it will stay the same or even get less popular in the next years, but it will not disappear.